The only difference is that the system of equations is larger and that the tier protection system requires a bit of extra bookkeeping. Going from Bronze to Gold would take a 40% win rate player 78.9 games in expectation (i.e., about 10 hours). A great example is Esper Hero, a deck that got me through a few tiers in Platinum: This is a strategy popularized by Wyatt Darby, which placed 5th at the SCG Open in Indianapolis. You’ll also find the deck has a low curve. We don’t know yet what the values of E[START] or E[1 win] are, but the equation is valid. Thanks for reading! To rank up in Constructed, you’ll want to play in the “Ranked” best-of-one games or in the “Ranked” best-of-three games. This represents a system of equations. With three unknowns and three equations, we can use standard linear algebra techniques to solve it. Finally, E[2 win] = 40% * (1 + E[1 win]) + 60% * 1. If best-of-one is filled with fast Mono-Red decks, then it may be faster to rank up in that mode. The other is life gain with primarily wheenies, but a few angles. Against Mono-Red and Mono-White, I knew that I needed to have a combination of blockers, removal and life gain in order to compete. Yet if the best players move to best-of-three, then best-of-one may be easier. You’ll run into players with a pile of Revitalize and Basilica Bell-Haunt to counter the onslaught of Mono-Red, while also running into your traditional Esper, Sultai and Bant strategies that do a good job of slowing down the game. Ronnie Kohrt says Wizards of the Coast needs a ‘watch list’ for their formats after their recent ban and restricted schedule change announcement. The numbers I provided are expected values. However, one deck has seen many different and innovative variations recently and manages to be very good against the large number of UW and Reclamation decks that seem to dominate the MTGO scene. So for a game win probability P, your match win probability is P^2 + 2(1-P)P^2. This is great and very informative for those of that are new to Arena. I don’t know how long it will take to reach the Top 8 of the Mythic rank. There is a lot of variance. For Constructed, you can rank up either in best-of-one or in best-of-three. Burn spells provide you with lots of inevitability, while doubling as removal spells of your own in the right situation. There’s nothing wrong with continuing grinding with aggressive decks. Depose / Deploy does a similar job against both strategies. As we talked about reaching Mythic in Limited is technically easier and faster than playing Standard. The folks over at MTG Arena Zone were kind enough to let me write a deck guide for the Mono White Aggro deck that won the Redbull Untapped Qualifier, and which I have been having a ton of fun with on the ladder. Everyone initially starts at Bronze tier 4. According to the tables, in expectation this player would need 17.1 games to go from Bronze 4 to Silver 4 and 24.3 games from Silver 4 to Gold 4 while playing best-of-one. How healthy is Standard right now? Zachary takes a look. Sometimes slumps happen, Ronnie Kohrt works out of his latest and takes reader advice on getting out of a magic playing slump. Your final deck, not counting lands, I have 4 of those cards. The problem is small enough to do it by hand, which yields the following results: For the MTG Arena ranking system, we can apply the same approach. For Limited, Bronze consists of 4 steps and all other ranks consist of 5 steps. From. Each non-Mythic rank has four tiers, with tier 1 being the best and tier 4 being the worst within that rank. The major points are that it takes grinding hundreds of hours to reach Mythic. Quantitative models never capture all aspects of reality: In expectation, an above average player (with a 56% win rate in Platinum, and 52% in Diamond) requires approximately 45 hours of play to go from Bronze to Mythic in Limited and approximately 50 hours of play to go from Bronze to Mythic in Constructed, at a rate of 8 games per hour. Reaching Mythic on a budget isn’t impossible, but it’s very difficult. For game win rates other than 50%, the expected number of games per match is different for matches won and matches lost, which adds an extra layer of complexity to the problem. }); There were several major moments in Magic in 2019, Ronnie Kohrt goes over some historic and great moments of 2019. If you spot one, please let me know. Knowing the expected field is half the battle and allows you to make wise deck building choices that you otherwise wouldn’t make in a slightly different meta-game. But such a player would need 16,911 games in expectation to go from Bronze to Mythic. I can happily say that this goal was achieved. Congratulations! I’m not sure how far meta gaming can take you in this field, but I’ll continue the grind and see how much more I can learn. The deck that took me from Diamond 2 to Mythic is a pretty wild one: Golgari Undergrowth. In BO3, you might see this style of deck play cards like Kraul Harpooner or Izoni, Thousand-Eyed, which line up well against Mono-Blue and Sultai, respectively, but these decks combined are less common than Mono-Red, which means you have to utilize your flex spots accordingly. Once you’ve reached Gold, your opponent’s will have near-optimized decks and meta-relevant strategies. Don’t settle for specific anti-meta cards. Zachary Derepentigny is chewing up and spitting out the competition with Golgari Food in Standard! If you are after cards to build decks then the grind won't help you as much as just playing to acquire cards through events, daily quests, etc. To rank up in Limited, you’ll want to enter the best-of-one Draft events. Although to my knowledge the exact workings have never been officially announced, I discovered empirically that in best-of-one you cannot fall a tier within a rank within 3 games of reaching a new tier. In Constructed, the expected number of games to reach the next rank as a function of your game win rate is the same for Gold, Platinum, and Diamond. Although losses can push you down a tier within a rank (e.g., from Gold 3 to Gold 4), there is some protection when you move into a tier. The impact of tier protection is substantial. In best-of-one (BO1), games go faster due to the lack of time spent side-boarding, which gives the ability to play more games in less time. Neither is really that good even in mid-Gold. Consider again our above average player who has 70% to win a game in Bronze, 64% in Silver, 60% in Gold, 56% in Platinum, and 52% in Diamond. Basilica Bell-Haunt and the combination of Seraph of the Scales and Lyra Dawnbringer can be lights out against both Mono-Red and Mono-White, as they can’t keep up with the life gain or the resilient blockers.